In less than 1 month, Apple will launch its Apple iWatch. And the question is : will it be a success?
This is always difficult to know if a new product will be a success or not … But there is 1 thing to understand when we launch a new product : what are the main failure of the competitor products?
And Samsung Gear, the main competitor is not completely success. Do you see nowadays, in the subway, in the street, people with the Samsung Gear Watch? … And the problem is not that the Samsung smartphones are not the leader, isn’t it? In 2013/2014, the average Worldwide market share of Samsung was about 30% ; in January 2015, nevertheless, the market share was reduced to 20%, decreasing from 30% (in ratio).
But, nevertheless, Samsung with Samsung Gear is the leader of smartwatches sold in 2014 with 1,2 millions of units.
Is people satisfied by their smartwatch ? … No!
3 main topics are not relevant for the Samsung watch:
- Autonomy : with 1 day of autonomy, you always have to recharge the battery of your watch … And if you are using your connectivity at the maximum, it is less than 4 hours …
- Apps: there is not a lot of usage for the Samsung watch : we are speak about 20 to 30 Apps, and not all of them are good
- Connectivity: with Bluetooth, the connectivity is not good and not secure …
- Sensors : camera, sound, … nothing incredible ! Less than a smartphone !!!
With Apple, what do we know:
- Autonomy : 18 hours … probably in the same condition as Samsung ; in full usage of connectivity, 3 hours … as rumor said !
- Apps : 34 Apps advertised on Apple Store for the moment ; and nothing that seems to be a revolution. What is the real interest to have a new connected object with a computer inside with so few Apps. To be dramatically upgraded!
- Connectivity : with Wifi in addition of Bluetooth, we can expect better connectivity, more secure than Samsung … Nevertheless, this connectivity between a smartphone and a watch will remain via Bluetooth … This is only connectivity with public Wifi area that could accelerate the connectivity; not so sure that it will be sufficient !
- Sensors : no revolution compare to Samsung Gear ; how to measure diabetes, arterial pressure, temperature, virus and batteries overview … and more!
To conclude, Apple could probably sell around 1 million of iWatch in 2015 … but not more than Samsung Gear in 2014. You will not see 100 millions of iWatch sold, as for smartphones.
Why? No revolution of this object …
What could be the future of the revolution ?
- Autonomy : 1 month, 3 months, 1 year or … without any recharge! How to do that: reduction of energy usage by 10 or 100 by thinking the OS differently than for a smartphone. And use the energy to recharge with heat of the skin, solar and moving of the hand. If the autonomy is not the same or better than for a non connected watch, what is the real interest to
- Apps : minimum of 1000 Apps to have a real added of these connected objects with connection to bank, credit card, insurance, police, hospital …
- Connectivity : without 3G / 4G direct connection with military encryption is a must do for this type of objects
- Sensors : measure of health situation is a must do
Of course, Apple iWatch will not be completely a failure. And having 1 million of iWatch sold this year is not so bad. But this is not the revolution that Apple is pushing with its marketing. The connected revolution is not really ongoing with this object ; Apple just not would like to be outside the competition.
And the real revolutionary smartwatch remains to be invented with, this time, a lot of innovations.